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Horace
09-10-2009, 02:47
I was trying to read this article by an astrologer who mentioned that moon wobbles are like Mercury retrograde. Only they affect natural disasters instead of mercury-type glitches. It was very much over my head. I wasn't quite sure if that meant a literal wobble or as in Mercury not really going backwards. According to this, the next major wobble will occur on the 18th.
How do they know this? Are major disasters charted for October 18? What is a "moon wobble"? Hh

Minderwiz
09-10-2009, 04:02
It's an 'invention' of Carl Payne Tobey. He claimed to have statistically identified a correlation beween disasters and the Sun's conjunction or square to the Lunar Node(s).

There are several articles on the web but you might find this one interesting:

http://home.swbell.net/naomiben/wobble.htm

I'd say the jury is out on this - there's interesting evidence but we'd need a sample covering several centuries of data. I'm certainly not saying that it's invalid though.

Bear in mind two things:

Correlation does not require every 'Moon Wobble' to be accompanied by a corresponding disaster; and

Correlation does not prove cause (though it's highly useful for prediction).

Bernice
09-10-2009, 05:02
Oh dear, I thought the 'wobble' being referred to, was another term for the perburtations of the Moon. (spelling ? :rolleyes:). Good job I waited for you Minderwiz.

Bee :)

Minderwiz
09-10-2009, 05:44
Well, you are actually correct there Bee, Any spinning object does have regular variations in axial direction, precession of the equinoxes being one example which regularly is referred to here. So the Moon will have a 'wobble' in this sense.

However, the link with disasters, seems to firmly put the th ball firmly in Carl Payne Tobey's court.

Bernice
09-10-2009, 06:00
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However, the link with disasters, seems to firmly put the the ball firmly in Carl Payne Tobey's court.
I agree.Too many natural phenomenon are wrongly deemed doom-laden.

Bee :)

ravenest
09-10-2009, 10:08
One of the 'issues' with these types of predictions is the location. I tracked some 'dangerous' days on the Antipodean Calendar and for a while several disasters seemed to line up, but there was no hint of where they would occur.

I kept record on the calendar and for a while it seemed accurate (about 18 months ago) I listed events that happened (typhoons, earthquakes, tsunamis - they seem to come in 'batches') and they lined up with the 'caution' days. But then there was a long period when these days passed with no recorded 'bad' events. After this latest batch ( Pacific and Indonesion earthquakes, tsunami warnings, Japanes typhons) I checked and they dont seem to line up with anything.

I do however think that certain processes of the Moon, its orbit and position can be used to predict the possibility of these events (as well as certain Sun 'cycles') but there are other factors at work that cause variation within these cycles - we are still a LONG way from nutting it out.

(Even the daily weather forecast is ofetn wrong :D )

Horace
09-10-2009, 11:48
Thanks for the information and the opinions, and the link. I guess the 18th will tell.
I was just curious about the lunar smackdown on the moon's south pole in the morning. This article came up in my searches and the term wasn't something I'd heard before. I read the entire article and it seemed plausible and the man fairly sure of what he was writing...
I appreciate you guys taking the time to tell me what you know. thank you Hh

Minderwiz
09-10-2009, 18:14
Thanks for your take Ravenest, I found it very interesting as it fits with my preliminary view that there just isn't the data yet to form a clear picture. You are also right on other factors playing a role as well.

At best we might reach a situation of giving probabilities of events happening, which can be verified by observation but locating the 'where' of these events isn't going to come from the prediction that an event will occur.