asteroid update?

Thread originally posted on the Aeclectic Tarot Forum on 30 Aug 2002, and now archived in the Forum Library.

Moonklad	30 Aug 2002
Hi everyone- Remember the conversations we had a few weeks ago about the possiblity of an asteroid on a collision course with earth? Has anyone heard anything else about this? I have tried to find out more info about it and havent come across anything. blessings, Moonklad

Diana	30 Aug 2002
Moonklad: What I have read recently is that it is more likely to be 2019, that 2012. Also that there is about a one in 60'000 chance which will hit the earth, and that the margin of error in the actual calculations could be in the realm of tens of millions of miles. In June this year, an asteroid missed hitting the earth by 75'000 miles, which is really pretty close. It's a good thing that people are getting scared a little - it may oblige the governments to provide more funding for research into how to destroy these near-earth-objects.

the hermit	30 Aug 2002
Actually one passed just outside of the moon's orbital path earlier this month. It was visible near the constellation Hercules with binoculars or a small telescope. The problem will always be that of seeing it soon enough to deflect it and then wondering if that will be enough. Or was the problem simply postponed to the next generation. OR... if you smack it incorrectly and cause it to break up, you then have multiple pieces on a new unknown trajectory that may still hit earth but now you aren’t sure where and on top of who. And the force necessary to do the job on a rock big enough to be a worry is also the problem. We don’t really know what it would take, but it will need lot of energy (because to be sure of the energy necessary you need to know more info than we have about size, exact dimensions, and weight of the rock we need to smack). Are we going to start lobbing nukes around in space in the hopes that maybe it will work? By the way, there are “near misses” every year. Lot’s of rocks cross the earth’s orbit each year. It’s just that earth is in another part of it’s orbit when it happens. And remember, the rocks in the asteroid belt are constantly “bumping” into each other year after year and that changes their orbital path. That’s where a lot of these “new” rocks are coming from. Others are one’s we’ve just not detected yet. Don’t forget that astronomically speaking these are really tiny things. A 10 mile diameter asteroid is almost impossible to see until it’s very close to us. They are most often spotted on astro-photographs when they pass in front of another object like a planet or star (called an “occultation”) causing a dark spot to appear on the photo. I’m sorry to say that eventually we’ll get thumped by a rock big enough to matter. But those 60,000 to 1 odds quoted by Diana are a misleading statistic from the press. Those are the odds for one that will do “measurable” damage, something worse than poking a noticeable hole in your car or house roof (which by the way happens several times or more each year). Also remember that the “odds” are that anything that makes it whole down through our atmosphere is most likely to hit water... as in ocean, which means that the odds are more like several million to one that an impact of any significant size will hit land (not that a rock of significant size hitting a few miles off the coast of L.A. would be a good thing.) The “BIG” one (like the one that may have helped our friends the dinosaurs make a faster than expected exit from the food chain) happens once every 65 million years or so, give or take a few million. Of course, some scientists think we’re overdue...

Gerbear	30 Aug 2002
As the entire solar system orbits the galaxy, it runs into concentrations of dust and other debris that didn't get aggregated into a planet or moon. At present we are entering a slightly denser area of the galaxy, which will present more opportunities for a collision. More and more ancient craters on earth are being discovered all the time by means of modern satellite technology. As long as we don't run into one about 5-10 miles wide, we're OK! If we do, it's the dinosaurs all over again.

The asteroid update? thread was originally posted on 30 Aug 2002 in the Spirituality board, and is now archived in the Forum Library. Read the active threads in Spirituality, or read more archived threads.