Can Tarot really foretell the Future ?

Strangely, I find this is the best thread, because it shows every view marching by, like the trumps parade. There's clanging and clashing, but everyone showed up with wonder and expectation.

Yang says, "Give it to me," grasping, willing to ask but unwilling to wait, whereas Yin is off preparing the room for an invisible guest, wondering if it would ever be worthy for whatever is wise.

LeFou said:

Strangely, I find this is the best thread, because it shows every view marching by, like the trumps parade. There's clanging and clashing, but everyone showed up with wonder and expectation.

Yang says, "Give it to me," grasping, willing to ask but unwilling to wait, whereas Yin is off preparing the room for an invisible guest, wondering if it would ever be worthy for whatever is wise.

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What a beautiful response, LeFou! I feel the same way and there's no way I could have said it as eloquently as you!!

Nikita_ said:

True, decisions should never be made based on tarot, wether we believe it works or not.
And I don't have any numbers at hand, but in my work, and personal life as well, I've seen it many times, suffering not making people better, but worse....but again, there can be exceptions...

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Here's a study that suggests 'belief' has little to do with the accuracy of a 'true' tarot reading vs. a controlled tarot reading between believers and non-believers. Believers and non-believers matched up close on the accuracy of a 'true' tarot reading, then varied greatly on a controlled one.

So, both believers and non-believers ended up agreeing that the true tarot reading was about average.

Amanda_04 said:

Here's a study that suggests 'belief' has little to do with the accuracy of a 'true' tarot reading vs. a controlled tarot reading between believers and non-believers. Believers and non-believers matched up close on the accuracy of a 'true' tarot reading, then varied greatly on a controlled one.

So, both believers and non-believers ended up agreeing that the true tarot reading was about average.

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Is that a test of tarot, or yet another test of how gullible people are, though? I have some serious problems with a lot of the 'design methodology' - if you can even call it that - of some of these debunking studies.

And I'm one of the folks who always tells clients that the cards can be wrong, and so can I!

closrapexa said:

I dunno. I've lost the thread of this topic anyway.

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You mean the topic of this thread ?

dancing_moon said:

Well, I'm speaking from my own experience with suffering, that's it. Suffering and pain have made me an essentially better person. However, if you'd like to generalize about which happens more often, positive or negative impact of suffering on people, I'd like some statistical data, please. Otherwise, it's my belief vs your belief, and utterly useless as a discussion point.

I can understand the reliability issue, but I don't rely on Tarot that heavily. Tarot is like a friend's opinion: it's noted but it's never the sole base for my decision-making. That will differ for different people.

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We also have other people's views here as well as statistics... mine agree with you.

Perhaps one needs a wider experience to be able to evaluate it ; mine has been with refugees and people in hospital and the general population.

The first generally do not act the way Nikita claims - more the way you see it.

Hospital has a mix ( more of white western culture).

General population (here) more the way Nikita sees it.

IMO its a problem that exists more in 'spoiled' cultures.

Chanah said:

Is that a test of tarot, or yet another test of how gullible people are, though? I have some serious problems with a lot of the 'design methodology' - if you can even call it that - of some of these debunking studies.

And I'm one of the folks who always tells clients that the cards can be wrong, and so can I!

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From reading the paper it appears to be a test on how people judge readings done with a spread laid by the reader compared to a spread laid by random, the clou being that neither the reader nor the querents know which spreads are the random ones. The judgements are regarded separately for believers in divination and non-believers.

The results show no difference in the average rating for random spreads and those laid by the reader for non-believers, while the believers actually rated the random spreads higher on the average.

An additional result is that believers didn't rate readings better on the overall average than non-believers. Believing in divination in general doesn't seem to make you believe in the result of a specific reading more easily.

In my book there is nothing wrong with the design of that experiment, except for the small sample size.

Chanah said:

Is that a test of tarot, or yet another test of how gullible people are, though? I have some serious problems with a lot of the 'design methodology' - if you can even call it that - of some of these debunking studies.

And I'm one of the folks who always tells clients that the cards can be wrong, and so can I!

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Just to add: The study quoted by Amanda_04 isn't really a "tarot debunking study", as the absolute measure of the accuracy of tarot readings (as by the querent's ratings) isn't the topic of the study. I think that some other empirical studies that do try to debunc tarot seem to miss their point indeed, as they put too much emphasis on pure fortune telling. But hardly any tarotist nowadays claims to predict next week's lottery numbers or next week's stock market prices (which is basically the same) anyway.

This study does suggest though that for the accuracy of a tarot reading (as felt by the querent) it doesn't matter what actual cards are coming up in a reading.

Ah, and after reading the text for the second time very carefully: The "believers" do in fact give better ratings to the readings on the overall average (that is regardless of whether the readings are random or not). But "believers" are not believers in tarot divination but simply are that half of the participants that seem to be more likely to believe in anything "paranormal" in general, according to the Australian Sheep Goat Scale. Oh well.

The purpose of the study was to address paranormal vs. non-paranormal as well as accuracy.

It was hypothesized that those who believe in the paranormal would end up identifying the "true" tarot reading from the "control" reading and that in general, believers' ratings would be higher for both readings.

The results support the hypothesis that the believers group would give higher ratings on the two readings; however, for some reason both believers and non-believers in the paranormal matched up very closely (within one point of each other) on the accuracy of the true tarot reading, while unexpectedly, the believers ended up very highly rating the controlled reading; the non-believers only slightly more disagreed with the controlled reading's accuracy.

It gives implication that belief in the paranormal or not has little to do with the accuracy of a true tarot reading. It is even more interesting to me that the tarot reader in this experiment had no idea which reading was the true reading however, the believers scored unusually high on the control reading. Since neither the tarot reader nor the sitters were aware of which reading was which, this might further implicate that sitters clearing their minds, thinking on their issue, and perhaps having physical contact with the cards does have an effect (as in, a PK phenomena/experience) with bringing realistic focus to a reading. In other words, since they did not handle the cards for the second controlled reading in the way they did for the first true reading, somehow this may have allowed them to become more out of control with their ratings on the controlled reading.

Nikita_ said:

Like I said before, the idea that pain and suffering make us grow and are even purifying is an ancient one, and deeply consolatory, but I don't believe it's true. I believe more often than not, people become bitter, defensive, even selfish when they go through a painful experience, in their personal life or otherwise.

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And I have seen many people who do not become so. In fact some people have spent their lives trying to understand the difference between those who do become bitter or even violent themselves and those who go on to lead very happy, productive lives. Viktor Frankl and Gavin de Becker (The Gift of Fear) are just two who've devoted themselves to this issue. (Read up on the personal histories of both these people who lived through horrifying circumstances.) http://www.amazon.com/Gavin-de-Becker/e/B001HCVD06/

How many of us are inspired by those who succumb to bitterness, pain and selfishness? Is there a way out of it?

The point about the original question, like I said before and someone else did as well, the key here is reliability. If sometimes it does and sometimes it doesn't, then it's as good as saying that it can't, in my view...it can't be trusted, and we don't need tarot or magic to make different hypothesis that may or may not come true.

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Do you know of ANY absolutely reliable method of predicting, advising, healing, helping, inspiring, and living life? Please let us know.

Is machine-like (binary) precision the only thing worth trusting? (That is, IF the machine has enough batteries, electricity, wifi, etc.!) One of the things I learned from basic computer programming was that you can trust that an established program will run if all the correct instructions are in place. If it doesn't then obviously there is a human error or the machine itself is broken. Life isn't like that.

Most of us seem to agree that, just like weather and stock market predictions, "The answer is no: not all predictions can be trusted."

The next questions include:
* How can we best use possibly faulty predictions?
* How do we evaluate/discover the accuracy of our predictions?
* If desired, how do we improve our predictive abilities (and is it possible or desireable to do so)?
* Should I refuse to make any predictions in my own readings?
* What is the purpose of Tarot readings if fortune/future-telling is not part of it?