Randomness in Tarot

JackofWands said:

...seems to accept the proposition that Tarot is random (but has value nevertheless). Is there anyone here who rejects this assertion?

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The cards might indeed be random if pulled without a compelling question. But people in crisis seem to pull the most uncanny cards. But even perfectly relevant cards are like the table of contents of a book -- we need so much more. And so the cards must speak.

JackofWands said:

for the past hundred days I've been conducting an experiment where I recorded my daily draws and then performed a statistical analysis on them to look for overarching trends. I looked for any variation in the distribution of cards over 100 draws that would signify something other than mere randomness affecting which cards were drawn. The thing is, I found nothing. Nada, zip zilch, zippo, and so on. The distribution of cards was perfectly in line with what would be expected of a completely random draw.

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This is a good question and you may well be right. However, why would you take as a base point the assumption that an order of cards or a number of certain cards would best portray causality and verify there is something 'bigger' in play? Let me explain.

I've done my own daily tracking for a year from a bit different point of view. I'm not so much interested in statistics, but seeing how well daily cards fit to my situation. I know this is not a scientific proof by any means (I'll explain why later on), but here's what I found: approximately 50% of the cards I draw answer my question extremely well, 25% answer well (with some ambiguity) and 25% don't seem to fit or I can find a connection but only with extensive interpretation.

I get a different card or set of cards for every day, completely randomly. That's because life is different every day. I can't possibly expect to feel the same or encounter similar events days in a row. That's why I don't think tracking the same card appearing or the same order appearing is the best measurement of anything. I believe that if the cards actually show something 'mystical', it's an illustration of ours and other people's emotions and thoughts, in a timeline that is not linear. In my mind it's possible that emotions and thoughts are not locked in our bodies, but somehow 'leak' into the universe and future thoughts and emotions can actually be accessed - you never know with quantum physics eh? how they turn the cards around, that one I don't know

Here's why I don't think my findings are anywhere close scientific: my question usually is "what is the main energy of my day today" or "what is the main lesson of today". I find that every day the card fits, but of course, if I know what to look for, I'll find exactly what I'm looking for: if I get 5 Wands, I can look for frustrations. If I get Ace of Cups, I can look for reasons to be happy. So it can be a self-fulfilling prophecy. But, at the end of the day I notice 8 times out of 10 that the card that I got indicated the *strongest* influence or emotion of the day. The card was an amplifier that picks the loudest voice.

It might be true that the cards are merely a meditation or mindfulness aid (pay attention to this emotion/lesson/energy in your life). I'm happy with that too, because it works. But I've had tarot telling me things 3-12 months in the future I had no way of knowing, such as me finding my soulmate, me having to deal with a mentally ill manipulative flatmate, me having to deal with a water damage at my house... so I'm inclined to believe there is something else in play than plain looking at beautiful pictures

EyeAmEye said:

As an example, say I draw the 6 of Swords for my day. So, I go about the usual, shower, eat breakfast, commute to work, spend 8 miserable hours at work, commute home, eat dinner, relax a few hours, go to bed. Right before I go to bed, I reflect on the daily draw. After a bit of reflection, I see that MAYBE the 6 of Swords was relevant to my commute home, leaving a miserable environment (work) to get to a better place (home). Even IF that were exactly what the card was trying to indicate, how really does that help me in any way?

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I'm from the very other end of the spectrum. I do daily draws to learn more about tarot because I'm testing the situations and cards on myself. I don't think anybody's life contains constant amazing groundshaking events, and most of our lives actually are quite mundane. I would never be able to properly learn all the meanings of 78 cards properly if I only draw cards for big questions in life, like when will I marry

I understand your point about 'forcing the card in', but on the other hand, you'll learn all the situations it can fit by doing daily draws and the meanings build on top of each other. I explained in my previous post that I usually find at the end of the day that the daily card indicated the *strongest* influence of the day, such as a surprise, unknown, learning something new or experiencing the strongest emotions.

I've also found that the more often you draw cards, the more granulated and mundane the message becomes. It's like the cards know you'll ask later again anyway and only give you the very next step. For daily draws you get daily answers. For weekly draws you'll get weekly answers. For monthly and annually you'll get much bigger concepts, such as major changes, shocks or delights. Daily draws and 'longer term divination' are not mutually exclusive, as long as you know what you're asking, why and how to interpret. You're not meeting the love of your life everyday, even if you got 2 Cups for a daily draw - it might then be a nice catch up over coffee with a friend

Wow! Thanks to everyone for the fantastic responses. This is a really thought-provoking discussion, and I appreciate seeing so many different points of view.

For those who wanted to know what specific question I asked, I must confess that I did not. However, you should also be aware that I don't ask questions when doing larger, more involved readings (for myself or for other people). If someone comes to me without a specific subject in mind, then I won't stop and ask "What does X need to know right now?" or a related question; I'll just pull the cards and start looking for connections.

Similarly, even if someone comes to me with a question (a recent example was "Should I go to nursing school?"), I tend to interpret my readings topically rather than as answers to a specific question. My use of Tarot is, more often than not, as an exploration of a theme (e.g. "You have a lot of inverted Swords in your reading..."), and then I allow the querent to make a connection between that theme and her question as she sees fit. It's fair to say that using Tarot without first asking a pointed question is a misuse, but then I think we'd have to broaden that label of "misuse" to my work with Tarot as a whole.

For those who talk about recurring cards during times of emotional crisis or great change (LeFou, LindaMechele), that's a reasonable stance to take. But I would like to throw out there that the past hundred days were a period of massive (and extremely unpleasant) change in my life, and were frankly the time in my life where I have most felt in need of guidance. True, some people may feel that the practice of a daily draw is trivial by nature, but I assure you that the way I connected these cards back to my life was not a matter of "Which bus route should I take?" but one of deep emotional significance.

Certain cards did "haunt" me over the course of the hundred days. The Sun, the Fool, and the Two of Wands showed up four times each. The King of Swords appeared three times, and was reversed each time. Flipping things around a bit, I drew every card in the suit of Cups (at one point or another) except for the Seven. And I was able to interpret all of these things and find significance in them. It's just that statistically, their appearance was not actually any different than what we would expect to see in a random draw.

(As an aside, thanks to trzes and Snaut for a stimulating discussion on the nature of randomness! Personally, I tend to stand more with trzes. Even in antiquity, the gods of Olympus were subject to the will of the Moirae (fates). But I know very little about quantum physics beyond what any high-schooler with a book report could spout, and I always appreciate listening to people who understand a subject better than I do. Really cool discussion, you guys.)

FLizarraga said:

Jack, this is a rather interesting subject and deserves a lot more time than I can devote to it right now. Just one thing: You are a very good Tarot reader, a fact I can attest to because I recently had an exchange with you in the reading circles. Do you honestly believe you came into those insights randomly?

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First off, thank you for the compliment. It was a pleasure exchanging with you, and, as I'm sure you already know, you are an excellent reader, yourself.

I genuinely do think that the cards I draw are random. I've really found no evidence to satisfactorily persuade me otherwise, at least not in my personal experience. As for my ability to interpret those cards with any degree of accuracy? To a certain extent, I think that the cards represent universal themes, and that any good reading of them (regardless of which cards come up) should resonate somehow with a querent's situation. Different readings (and readers, for that matter) will pick up on different threads, but any reading--any combination of cards--should have useful, thought-provoking insight to offer.

Saskia said:

This is a good question and you may well be right. However, why would you take as a base point the assumption that an order of cards or a number of certain cards would best portray causality and verify there is something 'bigger' in play? Let me explain.

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Ah, you've caught me! I have no rebuttal to offer for this. I admit that it is entirely possible that there is some larger force guiding Tarot, and that this force happens to select cards that (when looked at in a purely mathematical sense) appear to be random but that are still deeply significant and can be considered the "right" cards for each situation. It's not a view that I'm inclined to adopt (Swordsy man that I am), but because it's a matter of subjective experience, I have no way of addressing it. Well caught, Saskia.

Looking forward to seeing more of this stimulating conversation! Thanks again to everyone who has joined in thus far.

JackofWands said:

Those of you who have seen my previous posts on this forum know that I tend to be extremely rationalistic (some might even say closed-minded) when it comes to understanding Tarot. I've always been of the opinion that the cards that come up in a Tarot reading are random, rather than specifically selected (by the universe, by the collective unconscious, by the cards themselves, etc.) to answer a querent's question.

But I also want to be open to changing my opinions in the face of contradictory evidence, so for the past hundred days I've been conducting an experiment where I recorded my daily draws and then performed a statistical analysis on them to look for overarching trends. (I posted about it on my blog; if you want more details, feel free to check it out.) I looked for any variation in the distribution of cards over 100 draws that would signify something other than mere randomness affecting which cards were drawn.

The thing is, I found nothing. Nada, zip zilch, zippo, and so on. The distribution of cards was perfectly in line with what would be expected of a completely random draw.

For me, this reinforces my previous opinions about Tarot, but I'm curious as to how more magickally minded individuals would interpret the results of my experiment. How would you reconcile a turnup that looks completely random with the view that there's something more to the cards? A few possibilities off the top of my head include:

-All 78 cards in Tarot are relevant at one point or another to human life, so of course they'll show up in relatively equal measure
-My analysis relied on the quantification of Tarot into variables like suit and number, which might ignore the deeper meanings of the cards
-One could argue that, if the cards respond to a person's energy, my rationalistic approach to the experiment contaminated my results

However, none of these responses is really satisfying to me. And furthermore, I think that other people who actually hold a more mystical view of Tarot will probably be able to argue their own views much more intelligently than I ever could. So I would be really interested to see what people have to say on the matter.

Thanks in advance!

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Hi Jack, well maybe my reply will seem too banal and simplistic to you, but all I can say is, if you regularly pulled the same recurring cards over and over and over for the same questions, your rational mind would definitely be forced to believe, if not in "magic", then at least in synchronicity.

I wanted to start a thread exactly on this topic a few days ago but got busy with a few other things. Finding that a thread was opened on the same topic but denying nonrandomness is some pretty funny synchronicity. Anyway, there's been some precedence on this.

http://www.eheart.com/BOOKS/fingers/tarot-jane.pdf

It's pretty easy to reproduce the experiments, we could do that collectively by compiling raw data of frequencies of cards appearing in spreads over the course of a month or any other time frame. In the above article, there's also the idea that without intent, the deck approaches true randomness while intent decreases randomness.

As for quick and dirty explanations for the nonrandomness, repetitive ritualistic habits in shuffling and cutting might affect card distribution. But that's easy to control and the article above claims that a control group with normal playing cards which I assume used the same shuffling and cutting techniques didn't show the same kind of randomness. I'm not going to decide either way until I examine my own data at some point but I've seen recurrent cards and card themes so many times that I have little doubt about nonrandomness.

JackofWands said:

For those who talk about recurring cards during times of emotional crisis or great change... the past hundred days were a period of massive (and extremely unpleasant) change in my life...

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So statistics aside, when you drew the cards, did they have (or seem to have) an uncanny relevance? If not, did they at least speak to you?

I think your initial experiment needs tweaking a bit JackofWands!

I suggest that those of us who are interested all draw a 3 card spread for a serious question concerning the future, maybe about a global issue , then without telling anyone else, we tell JackofWands (plus one other person who acts as independent moderator) which cards we drew via Private Msg and he collates the data?

We also need two control groups... 1- who don't ask any question and 2- who ask any question they like.

I support earthair's idea and any other additional experiments after that. Easy to do and most of us are probably looking for excuses to play around with our cards anyway. Have we got any statisticians or mathematicians to apply more advanced analysis on the results?

Snaut said:

Being a mathematician I have to say that Randomness is actually a very modern phenomenon. To the ancient folks there was no such thing as randomness. They had their gods which made the things happening. And this was why they could find meaning in oracles. Those coffee stains were not simply "random", but predetermined by the norns or whomever.

Actually it was not until the beginning of the 20th century, that Kolmogorov stated his famous axioms, thereby for the first time defining what probability is. To make things worse, they are not accepted everywhere. One of the axiom says that probabilities cannot be negative. This makes sense to our intuitive understanding, but could be just plain wrong. The same type of wrong that real numbers are not intuitive, but only fractional numbers. In fact, in some physics quantum stuff, they compute with negative probabilities and also in finance. The negative probabilities in finance only occurred recently when negative interest rates where introduced by some of the central banks.
To really grasp what a random variable is one has to know about sigma algebras and measure theory.

Although it does not really add to the discussion, my point is that randomness is a human concept. The universe does not know "randomness". The universe is beyond the random/nonrandom dualistic viewpoint.
Only on our plane of human understanding does it look "random", because we cannot distinguish it from a random variable.

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THis is a great answer! Very interesting...

Also, I read this book http://www.amazon.com/Margins-Reality-Consciousness-Physical-World/dp/1936033003 in which the published results of Princeton Engineering research showed that there is a statistically significant change in the outcome of a random event based on conscious intention of a certain outcome (wishing for heads or tails) but it was interesting that it changed the shape of the peak of the bell curve towards the desired outcome, and made the curve skinnier but it also made the tail ends longer...so the midpoint was changed, but not the median..or something like that...also, individuals consistently got the same skew, over and over as individuals, but some of them were in the OPPOSITE direction of what the wanted to happen...anyway, it was fascinating...I read it a long time ago and have forgotten some of the details...but I do remember, that yes, consciousness does have an effect on reality, but overall, the yin and yang will still be balanced when you look at the whole picture....like if you push on a balloon in one place, it expands in another...you change it, but it still has to all balance...