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Predictive Methods


To help those who are learning Astrology, I'm posting a thread on predictive methods. This is a result of issues raised in another thread and I can see that making the step from casting and interpreting a natal (or indeed mundane) chart,there comes a time to move on to the next stage of predicting what comes next.

I'm not going to go through the methods in detail, some of them have been the subject of threads elsewhere, or have appeared within threads. Instead I'm going to do an introduction (and I'm hoping this will be added to by others in subsequent posts) and add links to the methods, where they have been dealt with in those other threads. The latter may develop over time as it requires some real attempt to examine previous threads for predictive methods. Again, I hope that others, especially Dave, will add links to their own threads, opinions, etc.

I'll also try to add some books but I'm going to do that as an associated thread as there are so many and others may have read or prefer other books or may have different views than mine, so their posts would be welcomed there.

I'll make this thread a stick and I hope that it will grow over time, with further posts from me and others about our methods and preferences but especially from those who are learning and want to ask questions, or relate their experiences with the methods.

Please feel free to ask any questions relating to predictive methods here, or post your observations. The thread is inteded to be helpful but it is not, nor can it be a teaching thread - it's hopefully a resource.
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Introduction


The big problem facing students is the plethora of methods and books on predictions and predictive methods. This can lead either to students never venturing into the field, or a rush to learn all the methods as soon as possible. I would strongly advise that you first ensure that you can do (at least) two things:

Have a clear and focussed view of your approach to Astrology
Be able to interpret a natal chart (or for mundane work a mundane chart)

Predictive work requires a systematic and internally consistent approach to Astrology and it uses the natal (or other relevant) chart as a basis for making predictions, Prior to the last decade or so of the nineteenth century, the recognised purpose of Astrology was to predict. This shifted to a focus on the natal chart and character analysis as a result of laws both in the UK and USA which treated predictions as charlatanism and used the force of law against Astrologers, Psychics, Tarotists and others. Predictive methods made something of a comeback in the mid twentieth century as an aid to to counselling.

All approaches to forecasting use at least three 'decision' or 'action' periods - Long Term, Medium Term and Short Term and a good Astrologer should order his or her methods to allow for these periods. The following is intended as a rough guide and should not be seen as absolute.

Long Term - 2years - remainder of life native/subject
Medium Term - 6 months - 2 years
Short Term - Less than 6 months

Some Astrologers will use 1 year plus as long term, with months as medium term and less than a month as short term, so remember to treat these as suggestions, not rules.

That being said, trying to use the same method for the month ahead and 10 years ahead will leave you with so many charts that you will find yourself unable to manage.

Astrologers tend to develop their techniques over time, either by taking on new ones and discarding old ones when they come across better methods, or by refining their present tools, so don't see the set of tools you start with as being there forever but remember to keep a balance between the three periods.

At the moment I tend to use Primary Directions for Long term predictions, Solar Returns and Profections for Medium Term and Transits and possibly Lunar Returns for the Short Term. I class myself as still being at the learning stage, so these may change in the future.

In the next post I'll try to give some methods for each Time period. They are for guidance and don't be surprised if you find some differences with other Astrologers.
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Long Term Methods


There are quite a few methods of long term prediction. Most are traditional as Modern Astrologers tend to be very cautious about making predictions much above a couple of years and most keep to shorter periods. This is understandable in a situation where lives are changing and new circumstances arise, especially when the Astrologer seems themselves in a counselling role and the object is to have a two way dialogue with the client.

I'm not sure whether things were really very different in the past, to have techniques to predict a lifetime is one thing, to make use of them in a constructive way is quite another. At best one might argue that the Long term techniques can pick out key periods in life, especially points where major change is likely to occur.

Some examples of methods are:

Based on Planetary Periods - examples would be Zodiacal Releasing, Egyptian Directions, Firdaria. (Of these the only one I've used is Zodiacal Releasing from Spirit and Fortuna and only experimentally) They are based on the belief that Each planet in turn, starting from some point such as the Ascendant (Ascendant Ruler) or Lot of Fortune (Lot of Fortune ruler) rules a period of several years. These periods are not the same for each planet. The periods can be broken down into sub periods each with a sub ruler. The ruler changes according to a set order, usually the order of the planets from Saturn through to the Moon). The planetary ruler sets the tone for the period. Changes in planetary period rulers, or sub period rulers are an indicator of changes coming in a person's life.

Profections - these can be used for Long term forecasts for up to 12 years, though I prefer to use them solely in the context of the current year. They are based on the principle of moving all natal planets forward one sign each year but keeping their degree the same. Forecasts about the year can be made by comparing profected to natal chart. Originally the movment was discontinuous - each move was a jump of one whole sign. By the Seventeenth Century continuous advance was in use, so a planet moved exactly 30 degrees each year (and ALL planets moved at this constant rate), so a month could be represented as a 2.5 degree movement. Originally only five points were moved - Sun, Moon, Ascendant, MC and Lot of Fortune but Modern Astrologers who use profections may well move all the planets (including the outers).

Primary Directions - I've covered these in my Thread on Traditional Approaches and given examples. Primary Directions are based on the Primary Motion of the planets - which is their visible movement from East to West determined by the rotation of the Earth. This method uses the first example of symbolic time - one year for approximately each degree of heavenly rotation, starting with the moment of birth. Therefore your entire life is encompassed by the first 90 or so degrees of movement. Working on an approximation of 4 minutes per degree moving across the Ascendant and a lifetime of 90 years, it would take 360 minutes for the 90 degree movement to occur, or the first six hours of your life. Because this method is based on the movement of the Celestial Sphere (as seen from Earth) it requires some advanced mathematics to get it right. These days we use a computer but as those were not available to Hellenistic and Medieval Astrologers, you had to have a good maths education to do them. The development of computers has seen a re-awakening of interest in PDs and there is no reason why the outer planets cannot be used, or the method used in the context of Modern AStrology.

Secondary Directions - Invented by Placidus de Titis, the originator of the Placidus table of House cusps, these were intended as a simplified alternative to Primary Directions. They were not a replacement but designed to give approximations and cut down on the complex maths. Following the exile of Astrology from the universities in the Seventeenth and Eighteenth Centuries, Training in maths amongst Astrologers tended to peter out and Secondary Directions became the main method of choice. Secondary Directions also use symbolic time, taking one day of life as a symbol for one year of life starting from birth. So your 25th year of life is symbolised by the chart for your 25th day of life. These are easy to erect and easy to progress during the 'year' by moving the daily chart forward a two hour advance being equivalent to a month of life.

The Solar Arc method moves ALL planets forward from their natal positions by approximately one degree for each year of life (Like profections, the rate is the same for all planets). This has some similarities with Secondary Progressions, in that the Sun moves by approximately one degree per day, The method has been advocated for its simplicity but as Dave has pointed out in another thread, there's issues about the exact rate that is used, as the Sun's speed is not constant. So do we use an average, or do we use the rate at the time of birth and do we vary that rate as the Sun's actual rate varied over the first days of life? Secondary Progressions don't have that problem because they use the complete days (24 hours) from birth.

Those are the methods most used for Natal Astrology. In mundane Astrology, which deals with the 'lives' of nations and states, a much longer view is necessary and Traditionally the Saturn/Jupiter cycle was seen as providing a good indicator for analysis, as the conjunctions are not only approximately 12 years apart but follow a larger cycle of moving through the Triplicities - Fire, Earth, Air and Water.

The eclipse cycles have also been used for long term forecasting for mundane matters, the eclipse chart indication the conditions that will hold until the next eclipse. The requirement is that the eclipse is visible and the chart is calculated for the capital city of the country.

I've not gone into the detail of the methods and indeed each method may be found with significant variants. I've just attempted to provide a brief sketch and like all brief sketches lack of accuracy in inherent. So these are very rough descriptions. Questions on detail are welcomed and who knows, we might get to try one or two out at some point.
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Thank you Minderwiz!!!
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Medium Term Methods


The Medium Term is perhaps six months to two years. Methods that could be used are:

Solar Return Charts. Each year the Sun returns to the degree and minute it was at when you were born - your solar birthday. A Chart for that moment will give information about the year ahead. Solar Return charts are derived from your natal chart and are subordinate to it. They must be read in conjunction with the natal chart and must not be seen as being more important than the natal chart. Key issues surround the way in which the chart is read - they should NOT be read in the same way as a natal chart. Traditionally it was the similarity or difference from the Natal chart that mattered, especially in relation to the signs on the four angles (and therefore the planets that ruled those angles)' as well as planets on or near those angles. An issue which Dave has become associated with, is whether or not to correct the charts for the precession of the equinoxes - the slight shift of the Sun against the stellar background at the time at which it appears to cross the equator at the vernal equinox in the North. This change is quite small, about 1 degree of movement over 72 years. The older we get the more the effect of precession occurs. For me if I want to go by the Sun's actual position against the stellar background at the time I was born and the time it reaches that exact same position this year I have to recognise that it needs to move nearly a whole degree further. Hence we now have two competing methods for calculating SRs and arguments as to which is best, or even about whether they are complementary.

Profections - as stated in the previous post, I use profections, along with Solar Returns, for medium term forecasting, and advance the five traditional points by approximately 2.5 degrees for each month into the year that I want to examine. So 6 months in the future is examined by progressing my profected points by 15 degrees. Prediction is made by examining the relation to the natal chart.

Lunar Returns - similar to Solar Returns and covering a lunar month (in terms of one rotation around the zodiac). These could be used either to break down the Solar Return into 'convenient' chunks or as a method in their own right. A year really is the maximum period that these work in any easy way. I've tried them but I don't use them now.

You will also find other symbolic time period methods - a day for a lunar month, or a lunar month for a year are sometimes used. Perversely both of these are referred to as Tertiary Progressions. The month in question in both cases is the synodic month - that is the length of time from one New Moon till the next, which is longer than the lunar return to its zodiacal starting point (because the Sun is also moving).

In mundane Astrology much use is made of the Aries Ingress - a chart cast for the moment that the Sun enters Aries each year and cast for the capital city of the country. The Aries ingress was seen as the 'solar birthday' of the country because many countries could not point to an exact moment in time when they came into existence. This has been supplemented in the Twentieth Century by actual birth charts, as decolonisation and the creation of new states after the two world wars gave exact birth times to new countries.

Probably the earliest example of the use of 'natal' charts for a country is the Sibley Chart for the USA. Created by the English Astrologer, Ebenezer Sibley and timed for the signing of the Declaration of Independence (or at least an educated guess as the exact time is debatable).

We do know that many royal coronations were timed for an Astrologically auspicous time - the most famous being John Dee's election chart for the coronation of Elizabeth I. Such a chart could also have been used for Solar Returns, or Aries Ingress comparisons.
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Short Term Methods


The most used short term method is the use of Transit charts. These are simply charts taken for a particular moment and then their planetary positions are compared to the natal (or other chart). Strictly speaking ALL chart cast for a specific moment and showing the planetary positions at that time (real time charts) are Transits. So your natal chart is a Transit chart and could be used to compare it's planetary positions to say, those of your mother at the moment of birth. Event charts are Transit charts and so are Solar Return charts, Lunar Return charts (and all other return charts), Aries Ingress charts and eclipse charts.

So the real issue is how do you choose the moment for your transit chart? The natal chart gives us a clue - the natal chart is a transit chart and it's not constructed at random, but for a special event. The purpose of prediction is to identify special events in your life, especially changes, that lie in the future (though you can also use transit charts to examine events in your past).

How do you identify those future events when they have not happened. The answer is that you use one or more Long Term or Medium Term method to identify likely periods for future events and then use transits to try and identify the exact timing. Some Astrologers do claim amazing precision for their long/medium term methods but most tend to recognise that there will be some error in the timing suggested by the longer term methods. The methods described in the posts above give approximate times, transits are then used to find the most likely exact time in the range given.

So don't use transits at random. Nor should you try casting charts at regular intervals as you will end up overwhelmed by charts. If you cast charts for every minute of the day (perfectly possible for Astrological software) you would end up with 1,440 charts for the day and over half a million for the year or about 40 million for a life time.

Don't expect that something that seems to be significant in a transit chart will indicate a real event. You really need several indicators to draw that conclusion and those indicators should all point in the same direction. So Long Term, Medium Term and Short Term predictions should all point to the same type of event. This tends to work in both directions - a Primary Direction suggesting a particular type of event next year is only likely to be realised if there are supporting indicators from Solar Returns, Secondary Progressions or other method and even then may not occur without a suitable transit.

The old saying about swallows and Summer should be born in mind. Where there are two or three swallows though, Summer may indeed be coming.
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Dadsnook comments on long-term prediction


Minderwiz has classified prediction as falling into three groupings; long term, medium term and short term. This is a reasonable format in which we can place the many varied methods of prediction. This post will look at "long term" prediction in terms of both mundane and personal prediction.

The process which will support long term prediction is that of cycles involving the outer planets. Some postulate that the outer planets have no personal meaning in our charts. They may not have personal importance in some cases but they will have personal importance in other cases. Let us first explore how they can be seen to operate.

I would call everyone's attention to several books that offer compelling examples of the workings of the outer planets:

** COSMOS and PSYCHE by Richard Tarnas was published a year or two ago and addresses the cycles of pairs of outer planets that are identified by their conjunction points/dates. This 560+ page book is filled with endless research and examples covering history from 2500 years ago up until today.
The cycles of Pluto-Neptune, Pluto-Uranus, Pluto-Saturn, Pluto-Jupiter, Neptune-Uranus, Neptune-Saturn, Neptune-Jupiter, Uranus-Saturn, Uranus-Jupiter, Saturn-Jupiter are covered in terms of their impact on wars, politics, economic development, science, the arts, and natural events. I would estimate that there are literally thousands of examples given. This is a book of great value --- but it is difficult to read and stay with it until the end. It took me a year to finish it for the first reading.

** On a more personal and readable level, THE ASTROLOGY OF MIDLIFE AND AGING by Erin Sullivan will illustrate how planetary cycles can relate to each of us in a very personal way. This 220+ page paperback is a terrific resource for astrologers and students who want to better understand life trends for those who are approaching their 40's and 50's, or who are older. The cycles are related to peoples charts --- meaning that the birth position of the planet is the "starting point" and the progress of the planet through the chart is the cycle. In addition to these one-planet cycles, Erin Sullivan also looks at how two-planet cycles fit into personal charts.

** Betty Lundsted's PLANETARY CYCLES also takes the above approach.

** Liz Greene's THE OUTER PLANETS AND THEIR CYCLES is based on several lectures she gave over a period of time. She uses the charts of famous personalities to discus a variety of cycles. Her book, and others of this nature, are a bit fragmented as she jumps from one cycle to the next within the context of the chart she is talking about. However, the material is good if you can read and assimilate the jumbled nature of the material.

If you look for them there are many books of planetary cycles.

Permit me to first note "Two-Planet" cycles. These cycles use the conjunction point to define the start of the cycle. This cyclic approach is most easily seen in terms of how it shows up in our history, our mundane and political events. The opposition and quardtrature points are important. These two-planet cycles are great for mundane trends and are only of interest in a personal chart if that cycle is tied in to the angles or Sun or the planets (natal version of the cyclic planets) themselves.

It is often interesting to examine your own chart for where these two-planet cycles started out (their last conjunction point) and see if 1) that starting point has relevance to your chart, or 2) to see where your version of those planets are in your chart to determine what their "phase relationship" means and how you play a role in that larger scheme.

One-planet cycles always relate to the transiting position (now or in the future or in the past) of a planet relative to its natal positioning. The Saturn return is one example that many talk about, but the quadrature points, as well as the entrance into each house of your chart, define very important trends in one's life. You must first understand 1) the eight-fold cyclic definition that Rudhyar defined in his LUNATION CYCLE or which Marc Robertson defined in his ENGINE OF DESTINY. Once those cyclic books are assimilated and you have a firm understanding of "houses", you can look ahead in any chart and easily predict the basic trends of ones life. Having a context or understanding of the person's age and lifestyle, one can use the natal chart to make more specific predictions -- not detailed but still quite definitive in a general sense.

So, to summarize, long term prediction is based on cycles. These comments have dwelled upon two-planet cycles as they relate to world events, and may in some cases link into some personal natal charts, and upon one-planet cycles as the transiting planet relates to a natal planet position. I have not looked a other cycles such as the metonic-or-solar cycle, various lunar cycles, or any of the vedic or joytish cycles. I'll leave it to others to comment on those.

There is a lot to cover in terms of "prediction" and I doubt that we will be able to cover it all in any depth on a website, but we can at least identify and recognize the many approaches to prediction. Understanding "cycles" is part of the overall process. Dave
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Dadsnooks comments on medium-term prediction processes


There are a number of progression and direction processes used for prediction.
** PROGRESSION relates to moving each chart component at its own natural movement rate for a given period of time.
** DIRECTION relates to moving each chart component at the rate of advance of a single body, typically the Sun.

PROGRESSED charts are supposed to portray the natural development and experiences of the subject person. What is retrograde will likely remain being in retrograde motion for the bulk of ones life when using a "day-for-a-year" form of progression. Non-retrograde planets will advance at different rates:

**** The Moon will progress through a sign in 2.5 years. One often expects to experience new states of feelings and relationships with others at these sign changes. Perhaps a change in one's residential location may occur when the Moon changes signs, although house and angle positions are likely better indicators of this.

**** The Sun progresses at a rate of some 30 years per sign, although its actual position will determine how much earlier than 30 years of age in which it will enter a new sign. One will often note a rather sharp change in how life is approached and experienced at sign changes.

Since each chart component advances at its own rate, over time the natal aspects that may have existed between some planets will either increase in closeness and in your experience of them, or they will decrease in terms of playing a role in your chart. In other cases, especially with the Sun, Moon, Mercury, Venus and sometimes Mars, whole new aspect patterns may slowly form. As a rule, one should pay attention to every aspect, major or minor or even harmonic aspects such as 5ths or 7ths or 9ths.

DIRECTED charts are typically advanced at the Sun's rate of advancement. In these forms of charts, every chart body is advanced by the same amount. Therefore the forming or diminishing aspects between natal and directed planets change moderately fast and are very important to consider.

Both PROGRESSED and DIRECTED charts are advanced by any of several methods, each of which is technically and mathematically different from each other but will not be dealt with in detail here. It is enough to say that the rate of advance can be related to the 1) Sun's actual daily motion, 2) Sun's average daily motion, 3) Sun's daily motion at the time of birth without any alterations due to the application of the Equation of Time, 4) MC's rate of advance -- subject to each of the variations noted for the Sun. There are also other set rates of advance that have been advocated and used over the centuries.

What is important to note is that I have never seen an astrologer interpret a chart such that his/her statements varied according to the method or rate of advancement he/she chose to use. So, the method chosen should likely be chosen based on how accurate you find the "timing" of that method to be compared to other methods. It is only the timing that is important, not the interpretive value.

However, it does make a difference in how you interpret a Progressed chart relative to a Directed chart. Progressed charts are seen as an overall sense of personal development and experience in which each planet-pair is seen in the role it plays relative to the whole natal chart meaning. Directed charts are interpreted in terms of ones personal identity, intent, life style, health and attitude --- in other words how the chart is seen through the eyes of the Sun. One's skill in applying these nuanced interpretations is what marks the difference between a student and a capable astrologer.

There are a number of symbolic progressions or directions, often of the Ascendant or of the MC that some astrologers use -- 3 degrees or 7 degrees per year. Those astrologers who practice URANIAN astrology have a whole set of tools to view and progress charts. And Joytish practioners have a number, a great number, of approaches to progression-practices.

It is my opinion that most astrologers in Europe, the US, Australia, etc. use Secondary Progressions and Solar Arc Directions most of the time. It should be noted that Solar Arc Directions are most easily used in conjunction with the 90 degree wheel -- a mechanical charting tools that facilitate predictive practices, or a software version of it.

As a medium range predictive tool, progressions and directions do provide a nice picture of what has happened in the past couple of years and in the next couple of years. As one gains experience with them, it is sometimes easy to see even further ahead without recalculating the charts.

As a "precise" tool of prediction, the generally slow rate of movement per year prohibits one from saying exactly when a narrowing-to-exact orb of contact will take effect in someones life. Mars works "early" while Saturn is often "slow" to exhibit its influence. There are advocates for various forms of "averaging" when one or several aspects will combine to produce an event.

When an aspect in a progressed or directed chart will "materialize" is often either a combination of factors or a guess as to when in a period of time it will show up. The Solar Arc Direction method, due to the 90 degree wheel and dependence upon midpoint usage, will typically be best for fine-tuning "when" something might happen.

Should you use TRANSITS to a progressed or directed chart. In my opinion, NO, you should not. Progressed/Directed charts are symbolic time charts in which an actual date in the past represents the current year. Using current planet positions with positions from long ago, other than the natal chart, seems wrong. Dave
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OK Guys -

Thanks for all of this!

Thanks Dave for the book recommendations!!!

I thought solar returns were a predictive method..... oh well ...
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Prediction and Solar Returns.


First, franniee, this thread hasn't yet addressed Solar Returns which I would place into Minderwiz's "short term" prediction grouping.

Second, there are solar returns and solar returns --- three types, actually. Tropical, Sidereal and precession-corrected Tropical (which is a lot like Sidereal). They are generally read differently from each other.

Third, relative to Tropical Solar Returns, there are several broad approaches that have been developed and practiced over the centuries. The Siderealists take a very different approach than what the Tropicalists take --- they focus on angles and a number of secondary and supportive charting techniques. My approach uses p.c. Solar Returns and a very different related set of daily charts.

In any of these several methods, the approaches that you have described seem unorganized and do not follow a logical or linear process.

I will be glad to discuss Solar Returns but I believe that Minderwiz may want to keep this particular thread devoted to prediction in general and not delve into one detail process. Perhaps another specialized thread would be best. Let us wait until tomorrow and see if he wants to compartmentalize the discussion of Solar Returns. Then, we can continue this discussion. Dave

PS: It seems unlikely that transiting Pluto would conjoin natal Pluto once one reaches adulthood---that would only occur at birth or in the first year of life.
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