Huck
The 5x14-theory is a new concept and it should be explained.
The 5x14-theory claims, that once the Tarot was generated by adding a 5th suit of trumps to the normal already known deck with 4 suits, coins-cups-batons-swords. The number of trumps was 14, not 22. From this comes the name 5x14-theory. 5 suits, each with 14 cards. In the 5x14-theory the number of trumps later was increased to the now common standard form with 21 trumps and 1 Fool.
The (or one) opposing theory is the head-start-theory, which assumes, that already at the beginning the Tarotdeck had its later general structure, 4x14 suit cards + 21 trumps and a Fool. It indirectly assumes, that there once was a mother-deck to all known variants of Tarot deck, which had been testified in the past. This theory was more or less the Credo of many Tarot-researchers and it did govern the process of research, quietly accompanying earlier, now long overruled results like "Prince Fibbia invented the Tarot", "Gringonneur invented the Tarot", "the Gypsies brought Tarot to Europe", "the Tarot was the mother-deck to the normal card-deck", "the Templer invented the Tarot", "the Egyptians invented the Tarot" and "the Tarot was constructed according to a scheme of Kabbala and related to Hebrew letters".
Occasionally it was considered, that the number of trumps (so for instance Decker in 1974) might have been different than 22 (or 21 + Fool), but as far we now the process, it never was seriously investigated.
The 5x14-theory was developed by autorbis in May 1989 within 2 weeks, after having got the present "Kaplan, Encyclopedia 1" without previous knowledge about 15th century playing card research and much renaissance history. Observing a special fact of the socalled Pierpont-Morgan-Bergamo-Tarocchi (the existing 20 trumps are painted by 2 different artists, one painted 14 trumps and the other 6 trumps), he builded the hypothesis, that the 14 trumps were in the original form meant as a complete deck with a 5x14-structure and that the 6 other trumps were added later (the common card research - the head-start-theory assumed, that there first were 22 trumps, from which some were lost and these were replaced and then 2 - Tower and Devil - were lost again).
Autorbis simply investigated the group of the 14 and also of the 6 additional cards and experienced, that they included special signs, which did open the possibility, that both were really independant groups of cards and appeared to be complete compositions. He calculated the probability, how great the accidently occurence of such observable compositions might be and ended in the conclusion, that the idea "this deck had originally 22 trumps, some were lost and replaced" had a probability of less than 1 % and according to that the probability of "this deck originally had only 14 trumps (13 trumps + Fool)" should be considered with better than 99 %.
Autorbis, as explained before not a card researcher at that time, took contact to various accepted card researchers to inform them about his observation. However, communication is not always easy and he had no success to make them follow him in his complicated thinking operations.
Now the situation has changed.
Autorbis thinks, that he has gathered enough material and knowledge about early playing cards, to claim, that there is NOTHING, that supports the early existence of decks with a structure of 4x14+22 cards beside a general somehow legitimated assertion, that, when an object later has a special quality, it (with some probability) earlier also had the same quality (21 trumps + 1 Fool).
In the contrary, autorbis can point to various objects and documents in early playing card research. which supports the idea of decks with 5x13, 5x14 or 5x16-structure before the
famous and well-known Tarot deck with 21 trumps + 1 Fool composition.
On top of all his arguments is a clear document from Ferrara from 1457 , in which it is said, that "Trionfi decks with 70 cards" (= 5x14 decks) are produced. It is the oldest document, which tells anything about the structure of the early Trionfi-decks beside the really proved existence of some early card decks, which doesn't contradict the 5x14-theory.
Autorbis lists his arguments at:
http://geocities.com/autorbis/pbm14new.html
What does the adaptation of the 5x14-theory mean?
It's a revolution inside playing card research. Michael J. Hurst, who tries gather all documents of early playing card research in the internet, called it a new paradigm. All data known in playing card research and earlier interpreted in the common view of the head-start-theory, must now reinvestigated again according to this second very strong possibility, which is rather likely to be the simply true analysis of the facts.
The question, when the Tarot got its 22 special cards is thrown in time some decades ahead, now much nearer to the date, when Kabbala might have influenced the iconographical decision. A lot of ideas around the origin of Tarot, which is a rather long development of Pros and Cons, will simply disappear and instead a complete new field of research will show much more detailed and interesting historical questions.
Time has changed in playing card research.
The 5x14-theory claims, that once the Tarot was generated by adding a 5th suit of trumps to the normal already known deck with 4 suits, coins-cups-batons-swords. The number of trumps was 14, not 22. From this comes the name 5x14-theory. 5 suits, each with 14 cards. In the 5x14-theory the number of trumps later was increased to the now common standard form with 21 trumps and 1 Fool.
The (or one) opposing theory is the head-start-theory, which assumes, that already at the beginning the Tarotdeck had its later general structure, 4x14 suit cards + 21 trumps and a Fool. It indirectly assumes, that there once was a mother-deck to all known variants of Tarot deck, which had been testified in the past. This theory was more or less the Credo of many Tarot-researchers and it did govern the process of research, quietly accompanying earlier, now long overruled results like "Prince Fibbia invented the Tarot", "Gringonneur invented the Tarot", "the Gypsies brought Tarot to Europe", "the Tarot was the mother-deck to the normal card-deck", "the Templer invented the Tarot", "the Egyptians invented the Tarot" and "the Tarot was constructed according to a scheme of Kabbala and related to Hebrew letters".
Occasionally it was considered, that the number of trumps (so for instance Decker in 1974) might have been different than 22 (or 21 + Fool), but as far we now the process, it never was seriously investigated.
The 5x14-theory was developed by autorbis in May 1989 within 2 weeks, after having got the present "Kaplan, Encyclopedia 1" without previous knowledge about 15th century playing card research and much renaissance history. Observing a special fact of the socalled Pierpont-Morgan-Bergamo-Tarocchi (the existing 20 trumps are painted by 2 different artists, one painted 14 trumps and the other 6 trumps), he builded the hypothesis, that the 14 trumps were in the original form meant as a complete deck with a 5x14-structure and that the 6 other trumps were added later (the common card research - the head-start-theory assumed, that there first were 22 trumps, from which some were lost and these were replaced and then 2 - Tower and Devil - were lost again).
Autorbis simply investigated the group of the 14 and also of the 6 additional cards and experienced, that they included special signs, which did open the possibility, that both were really independant groups of cards and appeared to be complete compositions. He calculated the probability, how great the accidently occurence of such observable compositions might be and ended in the conclusion, that the idea "this deck had originally 22 trumps, some were lost and replaced" had a probability of less than 1 % and according to that the probability of "this deck originally had only 14 trumps (13 trumps + Fool)" should be considered with better than 99 %.
Autorbis, as explained before not a card researcher at that time, took contact to various accepted card researchers to inform them about his observation. However, communication is not always easy and he had no success to make them follow him in his complicated thinking operations.
Now the situation has changed.
Autorbis thinks, that he has gathered enough material and knowledge about early playing cards, to claim, that there is NOTHING, that supports the early existence of decks with a structure of 4x14+22 cards beside a general somehow legitimated assertion, that, when an object later has a special quality, it (with some probability) earlier also had the same quality (21 trumps + 1 Fool).
In the contrary, autorbis can point to various objects and documents in early playing card research. which supports the idea of decks with 5x13, 5x14 or 5x16-structure before the
famous and well-known Tarot deck with 21 trumps + 1 Fool composition.
On top of all his arguments is a clear document from Ferrara from 1457 , in which it is said, that "Trionfi decks with 70 cards" (= 5x14 decks) are produced. It is the oldest document, which tells anything about the structure of the early Trionfi-decks beside the really proved existence of some early card decks, which doesn't contradict the 5x14-theory.
Autorbis lists his arguments at:
http://geocities.com/autorbis/pbm14new.html
What does the adaptation of the 5x14-theory mean?
It's a revolution inside playing card research. Michael J. Hurst, who tries gather all documents of early playing card research in the internet, called it a new paradigm. All data known in playing card research and earlier interpreted in the common view of the head-start-theory, must now reinvestigated again according to this second very strong possibility, which is rather likely to be the simply true analysis of the facts.
The question, when the Tarot got its 22 special cards is thrown in time some decades ahead, now much nearer to the date, when Kabbala might have influenced the iconographical decision. A lot of ideas around the origin of Tarot, which is a rather long development of Pros and Cons, will simply disappear and instead a complete new field of research will show much more detailed and interesting historical questions.
Time has changed in playing card research.