Papal electors & results of election

There are two other threads that have been posted on the forthcoming Pope and its various aspects:
What I did is decided to drawn a single card for the outcome of the selection process, one for each elector as likely candidate, and another for the electors choosing from someone outside themselves - 118 throws in total.

For each, I shuffled the whole deck, and from there pulled a single card. If an Ace or the V came out, I drew a second, or if another serendipituously dropped, I noted it.

Here are the full results with some comments in my next post:

Francisco Alvarez Martinez, 79, Spain
Carlos Amigo Vallejo, 70, Spain
Ennio Antonelli, 68, Italy
Audrys Juozas Backis, 68, Lithuania
Philippe Xavier Ignace Barbarin, 54, France
Tarcisio Bertone, 70, Italy
Giacomo Biffi, 76, Italy
Josip Bozanic, 56, Croatia
Agostino Cacciavillan, 78, Italy
Ricardo Maria Carles Gordo, 78, Spain
Marco Ce, 79, Italy
Desmond Connell, 79, Ireland
Godfried Danneels, 71, Belgium
Salvatore De Giorgi, 74, Italy
Peter Erdo, 52, Hungary
Michele Giordano, 74, Italy
Jozef Glemp, 75, Poland
Zenon Grocholewski, 65, Poland
Julian Herranz Casado, 75, Spain
Lubomyr Husar, 72, Ukraine
Marian Jaworski, 78, Ukraine
Walter Kasper, 72, Germany
Karl Lehmann, 68, Germany
Jean-Marie Lustiger, 78, France
Franciszek Macharski, 77, Poland
Francesco Marchisano, 75, Italy
Eduardo Martinez Somalo, 78, Spain
Carlo Maria Martini, 78, Italy
Renato Raffaele Martino, 72, Italy
Joachim Meisner, 71, Germany
Cormac Murphy-O'Connor, 72, Britain
Attilio Nicora, 68, Italy
Keith Michael Patrick O'Brien, 67, Ireland
Bernard Panafieu, 74, France
Laszlo Paskai, 77, Hungary
Severino Poletto, 72, Italy
Jose da Cruz Policarpo, 69, Portugal
Mario Francesco Pompedda, 75, Italy
Paul Poupard, 74, France
Janis Pujats, 74, Latvia
Vinko Puljic, 59, Bosnia-Herzegovina
Joseph Ratzinger, 77, Germany
Giovanni Battista Re, 71, Italy
Antonio Maria Rouco Varela, 68, Spain
Camillo Ruini, 74, Italy
Jose Saraiva Martins, 73, Portugal
Cristoph Schonborn, 60, Austria
Henri Schwery, 72, Switzerland
Angelo Scola, 63, Italy
Sergio Sebastiani, 73, Italy
Crescenzio Sepe, 61, Italy
Adrianus Johannes Simonis, 73, Netherlands
Angelo Sodano, 77, Italy
Georg Maximilian Sterzinsky, 69, Germany
Jean-Louis Pierre Tauran, 61, France
Dionigi Tettamanzi, 71, Italy
Vlk Miloslav, 72, Czech Republic
Friedrich Wetter, 77, Germany
Geraldo Majella Agnelo, 71, Brazil
Jorge Mario Bergoglio, 68, Argentina
Dario Castrillon Hoyos, 75, Colombia
Juan Luis Cipriani Thorne, 61, Peru
Francisco Javier Errazuriz Ossa, 71, Chile
Jose Freire Falcao, 79, Brazil
Claudio Hummes, 70, Brazil
Nicolas de Jesus Lopez Rodriguez, 68, Dominican Republic
Alfonso Lopez Trujillo, 69, Colombia
Javier Lozano Barragan, 72, Mexico
Jorge Arturo Medina Estevez, 78, Chile
Miguel Obando Bravo, 79, Nicaragua
Jaime Lucas Ortega y Alamino, 68, Cuba
Rodolfo Quezada Toruno, 73, Guatemala
Norberto Rivera Carrera, 62, Mexico
Oscar Andres Rodriguez Maradiaga, 62, Honduras
Pedro Rubiano Saenz, 72, Colombia
Juan Sandoval Iniguez, 72, Mexico
Eusebio Oscar Scheid, 72, Brazil
Adolfo Antonio Suarez Rivera, 78, Mexico
Julio Terrazas Sandoval, 69, Bolivia
Aloysius Matthew Ambrozic, 75, Canada
William Wakefield Baum, 78, Washington
Edward Michael Egan, 73, New York
Francis Eugene George, 68, Chicago
William Henry Keeler, 74, Baltimore
Bernard Francis Law, 73, Boston
Roger Michael Mahony, 69, Los Angeles
Adam Joseph Maida, 75, Detroit
Theodore Edgar McCarrick, 74, Washington
Marc Ouellet, 60, Canada
Justin Francis Rigali, 69, Philadelphia
James Francis Stafford, 72, Denver
Edmund Casimir Szoka, 77, Detroit
Jean-Claude Turcotte, 68, Canada
Bernard Agre, 79, Ivory Coast
Francis Arinze, 72, Nigeria
Frederic Etsou-Nzabi-Bamungwabi, 74, Democratic Republic of Congo
Wilfrid Fox Napier, 64, South Africa
Anthony Olubunmni Okogie, 68, Nigeria
Polycarp Pengo, 60, Tanzania
Armand Gaetan Razafindratandra, 79, Madagascar
Christian Wiyghan Tumi, 74, Cameroon
Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson, 56, Ghana
Emmanuel Wamala, 78, Uganda
Gabriel Zubeir Wako, 64, Sudan
Ignace Moussa I Dauod, 74, Syria
Julius Riyadi Darmaatmadja, 70, Indonesia
Ivan Dias, 68, India
Stephen Fumio Hamao, 75, Japan
Michael Michai Kitbunchu, 76, Thailand
Jean-Baptiste Pham Minh Man, 70, Vietnam
Peter Seiichi Shirayanagi, 76, Japan
Jaime Lachica Sin, 76, Philippines
Telesphore Placidus Toppo, 65, India
Ricardo J. Vidal, 74, Philippines
Varkey Vithayathil, 77, India
George Pell, 63, Australia
Thomas Stafford Williams, 75, New Zealand
For someone else not in this list

A couple of things emerged whilst doing this. The first is the covert talk of possible secession from Rome by both North American and by African areas (independently of each other), with only the latter seemingly taking this with serious intent.

The other is that the new Pope will have to face the legacy of repressed internal dissention. For this, he will need to really be adept at generating peace amongst the diverse views within the Church that have not been aired for some time.

Of the favourites (in yellow/gold in the above post), the strongest candidates - according to my reading of the same, are:

Philippe Xavier Ignace Barbarin, 54, France
Carlo Maria Martini, 78, Italy
Paul Poupard, 74, France
Geraldo Majella Agnelo, 71, Brazil
Dario Castrillon Hoyos, 75, Colombia
Alfonso Lopez Trujillo, 69, Colombia
Juan Sandoval Iniguez, 72, Mexico
Frederic Etsou-Nzabi-Bamungwabi, 74, Democratic Republic of Congo
Thomas Stafford Williams, 75, New Zealand
More notes below...

From the above short-list, one aspect that strongly emerged is that not a single candidate obtained what I would have considered clear indication of Ace of Cups and V (in that order).

Of the short-list that remains, I suspect the two most likely in the end will be:

Philippe Xavier Ignace Barbarin, 54, France&

Alfonso Lopez Trujillo, 69, Colombia
I have here simply removed the ones with an Ace of Swords, who in the end will need be voted by prayer and meditation, not sense of battling into the world.

Gosh jmd, thank you for taking the time and trouble!

I have the barest knowledge about the Catholic church and its workings... although have a decided interest in the repercussions for the faithful of the world.

My view:
Beyond the obvious sighting of V, I might expect to see VIII/8...swords or coins... ace swords.... a page [swords or coins]
I suspect that the successful candidate will be aged 68-75.
And will have been a cardinal for more than 2 years.
And most likely European or South American.

On the basis of this, I would not be surprised to see:


Paul Poupard, 74, France
Jose Saraiva Martins, 73, Portugal
Geraldo Majella Agnelo, 71, Brazil
Julio Terrazas Sandoval, 69, Bolivia
Dario Castrillon Hoyos, 75, Colombia

After his performance at the funeral,
Joseph Ratzinger, 77, Germanyis a distinct possibility.


But much to my surprise, I'm very much taken by the appearance of XII... and just for the craic, I'm going to plump for:

Cormac Murphy-O'Connor, 72, Britain

Thank you for taking the time (and trouble) to read through my long list!

Looking through it, it seems as stimulating reading as perusing through an accountant's ledger...

I must admit that the two 'finalists' I posted are two people I would definitely not have chosen if I had been asked what I thought of each, knowing but little.

This is especially true of Barbarin who, at only 54, probably has three fair chances of being picked Pope in future elections. Yet, with both the Ace of Coins (in this context so closely resembling the Eucharist), with XIII R, I cannot, despite all my logical reasons to, reject the likelihood.

I also agree with you that the selected person is more likely to be either European or South American. Yet the Australian and New Zealand candidates would likewise be more uncontroversial, and would suspect that especially Pell would have had a good chance had he been ten years older.

Of the Europeans, I do not think that another person from the Eastern side of the Rhine stands much of a chance this time around, and hence probably would dismiss Ratzinger on this ground - though I did note that he appears also a likelihood for others.

I also wonder why you would be guided, in your selection, by an eight of swords or coins (more on this follows, however)? The Ace of Swords (or Ace generally), I tend to personally agree, as in such type of reading they are the cards that jump to my eyes and proclaim 'Yes!' - but have of course to be tempered by further insight (hence my other draw when an Ace comes up).

The VIII, I should of course point out, was in my draw Justice. There is good sense, as you suggest, to allow for this card to guide an outcome (and I note this as a general comment only).

If one takes a correlated meaning between the eights of the pips with the VIII, then I can likewise see your point.

Looking forward to the next fortnight...

Good list, jmd - not sure what to make of it all however.

The Colombian cardinal Trujillo, maybe? A French cardinal might be chosen - link to Africa and all that...

I'd be interested to find out why you think that

Geraldo Majella Agnelo, 71, Brazil
3 Cups [Ace of Cups fell out, Ace of Swords showed through]

is unlikely to be chosen. From the reading alone it looks promising for him - and he is 71 - a good age for an "intermediary pope".

Regarding Msgr Agnelo, the outcome was quite interesting, in that it was as if there was initial rejoicing and a desire to elect him, but amongst the electors those who considered him thought that sufficient others would write his name.

It was more as if, then, he was elected only in pectore, and never managed to make it to the written election forms.

Fascinating thread, JMD.

Do you mind my asking why you drew another card if an Ace or a V came out?
Also, what deck did you use? I am curious as to why you have discarded consideration of those in your throw with Swords.

I was interested in Aoife's comments on Ratzinger and your throw which was 8 Coins R. Ratzinger is very conservative regarding doctrinal matters. So was Pope John Paul II by the way. 8 Coins could be seen to be a number of power and traditional structures. Its reversal in your throw might mean a reversal of power for him and that ultimate conservatism which he represents. I listened to the funeral and was moved by the solemnity and ritual of the Church and Ratzinger's genuine affection for Jean Paul II.

Ratzinger's own recommendation some time ago was Francis Arrinze from Nigeria. Arrinze is African and has deep knowledge of Islam. Your throw for Arrinze was XV with VII Swords falling out. I'm sure you would have used a Marseille related deck, in which case the VII Swords could mean something quite positive with the XV. (I'm having second thoughts on this!).

Re your comments on dissension in the Church in Africa and North America, John Paul's leadership centralized power in the Church and focused attention on him as Pope. This perhaps enabled him to walk the world stages more effectively and achieve something of a grand vision of bridge building between faiths. I believe there has been quite a lot of anger about this in the North American Church and I heard a comment this morning that many Western Cardinals no longer wish to be regarded as altar boys.

All of this is very interesting as a reflection of the Church as a political organization, which it always has been of course.

With regard to George Pell, the Australian front runner, I read reports that he is regarded as too devisive and unlikely to get support from those in the Western Church who feel the Pope needs to be more aware of the world as it is today and more consultative. Contraception and celibacy are big issues here. Pell is well known for his conservatism. His actions in drawing back some of the humanistic reforms from Vatican II were responsible for my own previously very devout and family oriented sister leaving the Church.

King Swords seems appropriate for Pell, who has been quite assertive (aggressive) in the promotion of the conservativea approach.

JMD, this is a fascinating discussion and I look forward to its continuation. Off to read the other threads now.

Moongold

To briefly try and answer your questions, Moongold, the deck I used is the Schaffhouse (of near-Marseille style, with some modifications).

The simple reason I drew another card if an Ace or the V was drawn was to give a sense for the overall reading of what I take to be otherwise an affirmation.

With a number of possibilities with Aces and Vs initially emerging (which was expected), I then tried to sense into the cards emerging. The Ace of Sword simply seemed too forthright for the position.

I also recalled some of the words and phrasing the late Pope wrote for the selection of the next, in which the sentiment was that the ensuing Pope should be selected to lead the Church, as spiritual bride, forward into the future. The spiritual leadership was to be considered important, less so the administrative one.

Of the 'shortlist', I therefore simply withdrew the Swords as being of the more worldly and administrative types.

For myself, I consider the keyword of an eight of any of the pips as abundance, rather than the way some consider it, via the VIII Justice, as representing 'power and traditional structures'.

With regards to specifically Msgr Ratzinger, I therefore could not see him as Pope (given, only, the card I drew). The eight of Coins (reversed) would to me show that he would make a fantastic support in his resources and what he could further bring to the Vatican, but not as head.

Thanks for the explanation .

It clarifies your process for me, and I appreciate it.

Moongold